Dear Ellen,
thanks to you and the Heinrich Böll Foundation for hosting this dinner – and this main event on foreign policy in Berlin.

Dear Thou Q
Dear Victor Cha, dear Rory Medcalf,
Ladies and Gentleman, Friends and Colleagues,

This annual meeting is dedicated to China and South East Asia.

1                  Henry was wrong

It takes place in times of disruption.

I do not want to take anything away from tomorrow’s discussions. Seven years ago, in 2011, Henry Kissinger ended his book On China with a hope:

“What … if the United States and China could merge their efforts not to shake the world but to build it.”

In his old days the realist Kissinger became an idealist. But reality shows:

Henry was wrong. The political, economic and military tensions between China and the US are increasing.

2                  Trade wars

It was not China, which ended Obamas – in Europe mistrusted – “Pivot to Asia”.

It was Donald Trump, who killed TPP. Who put tariffs on Chinese goods – and China is responding.

The spiral of tit for tat in trade is escalating.

America First was not only directed against China. Trump is on a trade war with Canada and Mexico – a country that Germans don’t like anymore since last Sunday.

He is foraging trade war with South-Korea and Japan, with the European Union an especially with Germany, which produces those Mercedes and BMW he loves and hates at the same time.

All of this contradicts WTO-Rules – but it is exactly what Trump wants.

America First means: Destroy multilateralism.

Indeed ASEAN-States are at conflicts with the economic dominance of China in the region. European companies could tell long stories about blocked market access in China.

But trade on the basis of rules is – sometimes on paper, often in reality – a consensus between Europe, ASEAN, China and a lot of other countries. It is the acknowledged basis of the G20.

Trump has left this consensus – a consensus the United States founded in their own interest centuries ago.

In economics Europe, China and the Asian states became allies against the US. What a strange world.

3                  Nuclear deals

The US-assault on multilateralism is not limited to economics. This week the US ended their membership on the UN Human Rights Council. They left UNESCO and quit the Paris Agreement on limiting the global climate crisis.

These are not soft or moral questions. America First is undermining global security.

Climate change is a “threat to national security” – written in the national security strategy of the US Army.

China is a frontrunner in new clean technologies, number one in wind and solar – number one in e-mobility.

China is a competitor for global climate action – but not a strategic partner. At home China promotes renewables. Simultaneously China tries to massively export coal-fired power plants by the initiative one belt one road.

OBOR should be new carbon road.

Trumps worst assault on global peace was leaving the Iran-Deal and arming Saudi-Arabia for a trillion Dollar. We are at the edge of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. A race, which has successfully been stopped by the JCPOA.

Tomorrow we will discuss another nuclear deal: the consequences of the Singapore Meeting. Perhaps the winner of this is neither Kim nor Trump. Perhaps the real winner is Xi Jinping.

Some people compared the Kim-Trump meeting with Nixons visit to Mao Zedong forty years ago. As a friend of Henry Kissinger’s I have to quote Karl Marx’s answer to Hegel.

“History repeats itself– the first time as tragedy – the second time as farce.”

4                  End of the west

We are witnessing the end of the West. The West has been destroyed by the West.

For a long time Europe and the US were tied together less so by ideas but mainly by interests and institutions.

The ideas died 50 years ago in Vietnam and Chile. This process culminated in Abu Graib and the war against Iraq.

Trump quit the alliance based an interest und institutions. That’s the great disruption.

For Asia as for Europe. There are no natural strategic partners in sight.

In a multipolar world we will face pragmatic alliances based on common interests. To strengthen global governance we need stronger multilateral institutions.

What this means for China and its neighbors, for a European foreign policy will be discussed tomorrow.

5                  Finally

You are all waiting for the desert. So I have to finish.

After the desert you can watch the second half of Argentina vs. Croatia. You know who is playing?

For this game I heard a fitting joke this morning:

“What is a Messi? Not me for having too much stuff on the desk. Messi is a guy, who scores for Barcelona. But not for Argentina.”

A nice evening to all of you.